Beginners
Bridesmaids
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Muppets
Rango
Rio
Here are my guesses, with links to my reviews... let the wild guessing begin!Bridesmaids
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Muppets
Rango
Rio
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
*Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
...who will win... Christopher Plummer
...who should win... Christopher Plummer
Christopher Plummer brings incredibly life to the character to of Oliver, who at the age of 80 is finally able to live his way but also learns that he has terminal cancer. Max von Sydow is good in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, but won't beat Plummer. It was nice to see Jonah Hill in a different kind of role, but that isn't enough to merit 1) an Oscar nomination and 2) an Oscar award. I haven't seen My Week with Marilyn or Warrior, but these roles have not received much buzz. The edge and the award belongs to Plummer.
Best Support Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
*Octavia Spencer, The Help
...who will win... Octavia Spencer
...who should win... Octavia Spencer
Everyone else should be happy to be nominated, but the only choice is Spencer. The award belongs to her and her alone.
Best Actor
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
*Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
...who will win... George Clooney
...who should win... Jean Dujardin
All night it is going to be a battle between The Artist and The Descendants. George Clooney will probably take the prize here. The Oscars tend to favor big / well-known names, which gives Clooney the edge. I have yet to see The Artist, but I saw Jean Dujardin dance on SNL when Zooey Deschanel hosted, and the man has charisma to spare. He is a definite star, but I don't know if he can overtake Clooney.
Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
*Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
...who will win... Viola Davis
...who should win...Viola Davis or Michelle Williams
Ronney Mara should be thrilled to be nominated... she won't win. Glenn Close and Meryl Streep are talented actresses, but they don't stand a chance here. Michelle Williams managed to convincingly portray a screen icon, and has received significant buzz. However, this is Viola Davis' year. She gave a heartbreaking performance in The Help and lights up the screen with all her movie appearances this year (she was in many films this year).
Best Director
*Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
...who will win... Michel Hazanavicius
...who should win... Michel Hazanavicius
Woody Allen and Terrence Malick is overrated. Martin Scorsese won recently. So it's probably a fight between Michel Hazanavicius and Alexander Payne. The edge belongs to Hazanavicius for having a strong, unique vision. One question: where is Ryan Gosling's nomination? He gave 3 awesome performances this year: Drive, The Ides of Marchand Crazy, Stupid, Love, and yet no nomination. How the hell did that happen?
Best Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
*Rango
...who will win... Rango
...who should win... Rango
It feels unnatural that there is no Pixar entry this year. It feels like a weak group this time. The Adventures of Tintin won the Golden Globe for Best Animated Film, but for whatever reason it is absent from this grouping. Did anyone like Puss in Boots? All the buzz was bad. Kung Fu Panda 2 was ok, but not worth the win. The frontrunner in this category is Rango, and it will win.
Best Original Song
*"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio" from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, & Siedah Garrett
Sadly, this is the only category where I have seen all of the nominees (what does that say about my movie tastes?). I am inclined to give the edge to Bret McKenzie because
1) I enjoyed The Muppets. Rio was ok, but I was disappointed.
2) Rio is not nominated for Best Animated Film (which I totally support). The song is fun and all, but I'd rather see The Muppets take this category.
Best Picture
The Tree of Life
War Horse
...who will win... The Artist
...who should win... The Artist
The Tree of Life is a polarizing movie that has viewers forming very strong opinions: it is either a 1/2 star movie that is "crap" or a 5 star "artistic masterpiece." I'm sure War Horse is great, but it won't win (and I have desire to see it. The rest are decent entries, but in the end it will be a showdown between The Artist and The Descendants, with The Artist emerging as the victor.
EDIT: Well, this year I got 6/8... I was happy with Dujardin's victory of Clooney, which was my preference, but I guessed Clooney would win. And I genuinely don't understand how/why Streep beat Davis. Otherwise, I was correct in all categories.
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