Oscar Picks 2014

It's time to predict the outcome of the 2014 Oscars.  This is my 8th year of predictions!  Last year i saw 15 of the nominated film, and correctly predicted 7 of 8 categories (I don't predict all of them).  This year I saw 13 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

The Act of Killing
All Is Lost
American Hustle
Captain Phillips 
The Croods
Cutie and the Boxer
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
Iron Man 3
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
Star Trek Into Darkness
20 Feet From Stardom

Iron Man 3 is nominated for Best Visual Effects
Saving Mr. Banks is nominated for Best Original Score
Star Trek Into Darkness is nominated for Best Visual Effects

Alright, let's get to the main event:


Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
*Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

...who will win... Jared Leto

...who should win... Barkhad Abdi

At this point, Jared Leto has cleaned up at all the award shows.  I still haven't see Dallas Buyers Club, but he is the front runner to take the prize.  Bradley Cooper was good, but not good enough to take the prize.  I haven't seen Michael Fassbender or Jonah Hill's performances, but they aren't showy enough to take it.  I was most impressed by Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips.  He commands the screen, even from a screen veteran like Tom Hanks.  He is the only person that could upset Leto's victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
*Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

...who will win... Jennifer Lawrence or Lupita Nyong'o

...who should win... Lupita Nyong'o

This is a two-way race between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o.  They have been taking turns winning awards, so it could go either way.  Lawrence was good in American Hustle, but the momentum is with Nyong'o.  I haven't seen 12 Years a Slave, but every review praises her performance.  I think the award is hers to lose.  I loved June Squibb in Nebraska, but it isn't a showy enough part to win.  The other 2 aren't even on my radar.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
*Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

...who will win... Chiwetel Ejiofor

...who should win... Chiwetel Ejiofor

I haven't seen 12 Years a Slave, but I expect Chiwetel Ejiofor to take home the prize for his role.  He is a talented actor that I have loved in numerous films over the years.  I don't see how anyone else can win this.  Matthew McConaughey won the Golden Globe for his role, and I will admit that I'm impressed with his recent film choices... he has won at other award shows and might be the front runner at this point, but I'm still calling Ejiofor.  Christian Bale is always great... Bruce Dern is great in Nebraska, but I don't think it's the right year for either.  Not sure what to say about Leonardo DiCaprio, he really shines in Martin Scorsese films, but this isn't his year.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle
*Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

...who will win... Amy Adams

...who should win... Amy Adams

Cate Blanchett is a great actress, but right now there is so much scandal with her director (Woody Allen), so I think that will hurt her chances.  I enjoy Sandra Bullock, but I think Gravity will take other awards (like director and some technical awards), and someone else will take the statue.  Judi Dench and Meryl Streep are recurring nominees, but their films didn't do as well as the other 3 nominated.  I think this is Amy Adams year.  She delivers a captivating performance in American Hustle and should take home the statue.

Best Director

*Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

...who will win... Alfonso Curan

...who should win... Alfonso Curan

All great directors and worthy films... but I don't see much competition.  Alfonos Cuaron will win for all the work he put into Gravity.  The film had the potential to bomb in a huge way, or be a major success.  He made the right choices and will be rewarded for his risks.  Steve McQueen might be an upset, but I'm still calling Cuaron.

Best Animated Film

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
*Frozen
The Wind Rises

...who will win... Frozen

...who should win... Frozen

Never bet against Disney.  Frozen is a beautiful film, visually stunning with a strong story.  The cast is incredible and the songs are catchy and memorable.  It's a slam dunk for Disney.  I enjoyed all the films in this section (I'm still waiting for Ernest & Celestine and The Wind Rises to come to Netflix).

Best Documentary 
*20 Feet from Stardom

The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square

...who will win... 20 Feet from Stardom

...who should win... 20 Feet from Stardom

This is the first time I made an effort to watch the documentary nominees...  I couldn't force myself to watch Dirty Wars or The Square, which I'm sure are great films but are too political for my tastes.  The Act of Killing is also political, but sounded very interesting.  I genuinely enjoyed 20 Feet from Stardom and Cutie and the Boxer, which renewed my faith in documentaries as a whole.  They are interesting and offer some hope.  I would love to see 20 Feet from Stardom win... and most people seem to like it, so I think it stands the best chance.

Best Picture

*12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

...who will win...12 Years a Slave

...who should win... 12 Years a Slave

Philomena and Her, should be proud of the nominations.  The Wolf of Wall Street, Dallas Buyers Club, and Nebraska are strong films, with great casts.  American Hustle is gaining steam, but I don't see it winning.  Gravity will win best director.  12 Years a Slave is a film that is hard to watch, but has been considered the front runner since the beginning.  The Academy will give it the win for showing a ugly part of American history.

I would like "Get a Horse" (pictured above) to win Best Animated Short, because it was fun and directed by a woman.  I would also like to see "Let It Go" from Frozen win Best Original Song, because I loved that film and the song is awesome... but I don't know enough about the other contenders in either category to officially call them the winners.

EDIT: 6/8
I didn't actually watch the Oscars this year.  I wasn't feeling well and fell asleep before the show even started.  That said, I'm ok with Matthew McConaghey's win.  Still disappointed Amy Adams didn't win.  Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez were adorable and I loved their rhyming speech (and loved that he is now an E.G.O.T. winner).