Oscar Picks 2015

It's time to predict the outcome of the 2015 Oscars.  This is my 9th year of predictions!  Last year I saw 13 of the nominated film, and correctly predicted 6 of 8 categories (I don't predict all of them).  This year I saw 13 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

Begin Again
Birdman
The Boxtrolls
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Finding Vivian Maier
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Ida

Into the Woods

The Lego Movie
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Virunga

Begin Again is nominated for Best Song.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier is nominated for Best Visual Effects
Guardians of the Galaxy is nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling & Best Visual Effects
Ida is nominated for Best Foreign Language Film (from Poland)
The Lego Movie is nominated for Best Song


Alright, let's get to the main event:


Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
*J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

...who will win... J.K. Simmons

...who should win... J.K. Simmons

J.K. Simmons has won pretty much every award this season for his performance in Whiplash.  I haven't see the film at this point, but he is definitely the front runner in this category.  I enjoyed Edward Norton's performance in Birdman, but I don't think he will upset Simmons.  The rest seem tied, so I feel confident with Simmons as the victor.

Best Supporting Actress

*Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

...who will win... Patricia Arquette or Meryl Streep

...who should win... Patricia Arquette

Patrica Arquette seems to be the frontrunner, but the Academy loves Meryl Streep so I wouldn't be surprised to see her win.  I give the edge to Arquette.  I love Keira Knightley, but I don't think this is her year... and I don't think Laura Dern or Emma Stone stand a chance.

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
*Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

...who will win...Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keaton

...who should win... Michael Keaton

This category is a little harder to predict.  The Theory of Everything, which I do not intend to see, seems like the kind of performance that the Academy will award, so I give an edge to Eddie Redmayne.  However, I really enjoyed Michael Keaton in Birdman and he has won multiple awards for the part.  It could go either way...  Steve Carell's award is this nomination, Bradley Cooper's film is continually in the news but that won't help him here (it probably hurts him), and while people love Benedict Cumberbatch this isn't his year.

Best Actress

Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
*Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

...who will win... Julianne Moore

...who should win... Julianna Moore

I haven't see any of these films...  But I am most interested in Still Alice and Julianne Moore's performance.  Marion Cotillard and Reese Witherspoon are past winners, and I'm sure their films are great... but I'm still calling it for Moore.

Best Director

*Alexandro G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

...who will win... Richard Linklater

...who should win...Richard Linklater or Alexandro Inarritu

I loved The Grand Budapest Hotel, but it wasn't as technically astounding as Birdman and Boyhood.  Both films required serious planning and vision.  I think Richard Linklater will win for his 12 year labor or love, Alexandro Inarritu could easily upset this, but I think Birdman will be rewarded with Best Picture and Linklater will win here.

Best Animated Film

*Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

...who will win... Big Hero 6

...who should win... Big Hero 6

I still haven't see it yet, but I always vote Disney, so I give the win to Big Hero 6.  I still can't believe that The Lego Movie wasn't nominated here.  I liked The Boxtrolls, but it won't win.  Song of the Sea and The Tale of the Princess Kaguya are too obscure (although both excellent).  How to Train Your Dragon 2 was good, but it's a sequel... so I give the win to Big Hero 6.

Best Documentary 

*Citizenfour
Finding Vivien Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga

...who will win... Citizenfour

...who should win... Virunga

I assume Citizenfour will win.  I have absolutely no desire to see it (or Last Days in Vietnam), but based on the subject matter and the general popularity of this film, it will probably win.  I would prefer to see Virunga win.  It was a strong documentary that is relevant and moving.  I don't know if it will win, but that would be my preference.

Best Picture

American Sniper
*Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

...who will win... Birdman

...who should win... Birdman or Boyhood

As I said in the Best Director section, I think Birdman will win this category.  It is an excellent film, with lots of vision and great performances.  I think it has the edge to win.  The only film that could upstage it is Boyhood, which is another film that required vision.  I think Boyhood will win for director, so that Birdman can win here.

I would like "Feast" (pictured above) to win Best Animated Short, because it is adorable and moving (and Disney, and made by the people that made the Paperman short film).  I would also like to see "Everything Is Awesome" from The Lego Movie win Best Original Song, because the song is infectious (and because the film was not nominated for Best Animated Film)... but I don't know enough about the other contenders in either category to officially call them the winners.


*Edit: 7/8
I enjoyed Neil Patrick Harris as host (loved him hosting the Emmy's and Tony's previously).  I didn't make it through the entire show, but what I saw was good.  I was glad to see the only Foreign Language Film that I was able to watch / find, Ida, was the winner in that category.  Happy to see Feast take home the prize.  I enjoyed the performance of "Everything Is Awesome", but was satisfied with "Glory" winning.