This is my 17th year of predicting the Oscar winners. Last year I saw 10 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 5 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all). This year I saw 9 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
RRR
The Sea Beast
Triangle of Sadness
The Flying Sailor is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
Ice Merchants is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
On Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
RRR is nominated for Best Original Song (for "Naatu Naatu")
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
My Pick: Ke Huy Quan or Brendan Gleeson
I loved Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once. He does so much with the role, from impressive stunt work to romantic lead to heartbreaking. Brendan Gleeson has also received significant buzz for his role in The Banshees of Inisherin. I expect one of them to win.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
My Pick: Kerry Condon
Kerry Condon has the buzz. The only potential upset is Angela Bassett. Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu were great in their roles and Hong Chau's performance is acclaimed, but I still think Condon will win.
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
My Pick: Brendan Fraser
Brendan Fraser is the sentimental choice, the comeback. If not Fraser, The win could go to Austin Butler for his transformation into Elvis Presley or Colin Farrell. I still give the edge to Fraser.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tar
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
My Pick: Michelle Yeoh
Michelle Yeoh is the obvious choice. She is incredible in Everything Everywhere All at Once, seamlessly transitioning between characters and skills.
The rest of the nominees are talented actresses, but these roles are not enough to overtake Yeoh. Cate Blanchett is polarizing, Ana de Armas is a bright spot in a terrible film, Andrea Riseborough is a longshot, and Michelle Williams
Best Director
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
Todd Field, Tar
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
My Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Martin McDonagh could win here, but I give the edge to the Daniels who told a compelling and complicated story and made it look easy.
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
My Pick: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Disney and Pixar are usually the ones to beat here. However, I do not expect turning Red to win. Marcel the Shell is cute, Puss in Boots is a sequel, and The Sea Beast was fun, but I give the edge to Guillermo del Toro's unique vision for Pinocchio.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
My Pick: Top Gun: Maverick
Top Gun: Maverick was a lot of fun to watch. The action is impressive, while still crafting a story to keeps you engaged. I also enjoyed Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I think it will walk away with some other categories (for it's screenplay, design, and cast.
EDIT: 5 of 7, not bad
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