Oscar Picks 2018

Once again it's time to predict the Oscar winners.  This is my 12th set of predictions.  Last year I saw 10 of the nominated film, and correctly predicted 7 of 8 categories (I don't predict all of them).  This year I saw 7 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

Baby Driver
The Big Sick
The Boss Baby
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Marshall
Victoria & Abdul

Baby Driver is nominated for Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing, and Best Sound Mixing
The Big Sick is nominated for Best Original Screenplay

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is nominated for Best Visual Effects

Kong: Skull Island is nominated for Best Visual Effects
Marshall is nominated for Best Original Song ("Stand Up for Something")

Alright, let's get to the main event:

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money In the World

*Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sam Rockwell

I haven't seen any of these films, but Rockwell has been winning all awards.  If he doesn't win, I expect Willem Dafoe to take home the prize.

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

*Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Allison Janney
Allison Janney is a fantastic actress, and based on the reviews I have read she is phenomenal in this role.  If she doesn't win, then Laurie Metcalf will probably win.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

*Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Gary Oldman

Daniel Day-Lewis is planning to retire after the Phantom Thread, so the Academy may choose to award his final film.  But the buzz calls in favor of Gary Oldman.

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

*Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

Saoirse Ronan

I don't know who will win, but I've heard good things about Ronan's performance.

Best Director

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

*Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Jordan Peele or Christopher Nolan

Both Peele and Nolan directed (and wrote) memorable and buzz-worthy films.  I expect to see one of them walk away with the prize.

Best Animated Film

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

*Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Coco

Coco will probably win.  The other films should just be happy to be nominated.

Best Picture

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

*The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Dunkirk or Get Out

The prize will probably go to The Shape of Water, but I'm calling it for Dunkirk or Get Out.

*EDIT: 5 of 7
I'm counting Best Picture, since I expected The Shape of Water to win.  Once again I didn't watch the show, but I read about the highlights.  I'm still planning to watch a few of the nominees.