Oscar Picks 2019

This is my 13th year of predicting the Oscar winners.  Last year I saw 7 of the nominated film and correctly predicted 5 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all).  This year I saw 5 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
Isle of Dogs
Ready Player One

Avengers: Infinity War is nominated for Best Visual Effects
Black Panther is nominated for 7 Academy Awards: Best Picture, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Costume Design, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
Christopher Robin is nominated for Best Visual Effects
Isle of Dogs is nominated for Best Animated Film and Best Original Score
Ready Player One is nominated for Best Visual Effects

My pick for Best Animated Short Film is Bao (pictured above) from Pixar Animate Studios.

Best Supporting Actor
*Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Mahershala Ali
Ali will probably win.  If he doesn't, I expect Richard E. Grant to take the award.


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
*Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Regina King
I like Amy Adams, but I'm not sure her performance / film has enough good will to make a difference.  King will win.


Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
*Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Rami Malek
Malek will probably win.  I don't think anyone else stands a chance.


Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
*Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Glenn Close or Olivia Colman
Close and Colman are the front runners.  They have won most of the Best Actress prizes this awards season.  Close's performance is the only nomination for The Wife.  She has received several prizes for the role.  Colman's movie has the most nominations.  It could go either way, but I give the edge to Close.


Best Director
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
*Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Alfonso Cuaron
Cuaron's direction is universally praised for this film.


Best Animated Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
*Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I enjoyed Isle of Dogs, but I think Spider-Man will take the win.


Best Picture
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
*Green Book
Roma
Vice

Roma or Black Panther
Most people are predicting a win for Roma.  Black Panther was the most widely popular film on the list... so I think it could take the win.



EDIT: 5 of 7, same as last year.