Oscar Picks 2022

This is my 16th year of predicting the Oscar winners.  Last year I saw 3 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 4 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all).  This year I saw 10* films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

Attica

Dune

Encanto

Free Guy

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Nightmare Alley

Raya and the Last Dragon

Robin Robin

Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

West Side Story

Attica is nominated for Best Documentary Feature.

Free Guy is nominated for Best Visual Effects.

Robin Robin (pictured above) is nominated for Best Animated Short Film

Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) is nominated for Best Documentary Feature

*9 feature-length films and 1 short film.

Best Supporting Actor

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

My Pick: Troy Kotsur

Kotsur seems to have the buzz in this category.  If not Kotsur, it will be Smit-McPhee, who the frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

My Pick: Ariana DeBose

DeBose has been sweeping the award shows.  She steals the film and Rita Moreno previously won this award for her performance as the same character in the 1961 West Side Story film.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

My Pick: Will Smith

This is Smith's 3rd nomination, and it feels like his time.  Cumberbatch could steal the win and never count out Washington, but it seems like Smith is poised for the win.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

My Pick: Olivia Colman or Penelope Cruz

This is a tight race - Chastain, Kidman, and Stewart are all portraying real people... but none of the films are successes.  Ultimately, I think it will come down to past winners Colman or Cruz.

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

My Pick: Ryusuke Hamaguchi

Campion seems to be the front-runner, up until she angered the internet.  She could still, potentially take the title... but I'm going to make a wild guess and call it for Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

Best Animated Film

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

My Pick: Encanto

Encanto is a beautiful film, with catchy songs (including a nomination for "Dos Oruguitas" as Best Original Song), and it was made by Disney.  This seems like a no-brainer.  However, if any film has a chance to top it, it would be The Mitchells vs. the Machines, which has a unique vision and the backing of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller.

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

My Pick: The Power of the Dog or CODA

The Power of the Dog is the big, obvious choice.  This Netflix film has the most nominations (12) and lots of marketing.  However, CODA seems to be on the upswing.

Dune will sweep the visual and sound categories, but it won't win here.  Nightmare Alley is too weird.  Belfast, Drive My Car, and King Richard aren't big enough hits.  Licorice Pizza and Don't Look Up aren't big enough.  I love West Side Story, but 

I don't expect it to win. So it will come down to The Power of the Dog or CODA.

EDIT: 5 of 7, not bad.

Marry Me

Kat Valdez (Lopez) and her fiance Bastian (Maluma) wrote the hit song "Marry Me".  They decide to perform the song in concert and then get married live.  Over 20 million people are expected to stream the concert, in addition to the sold-out event.  During the concert, news breaks that Bastian cheated on Kat.  She is devastated.

Charlie Gilbert (Wilson) is a math teacher who was dragged to the concert by his friend Parker (Silverman) and daughter Lou (Coleman).  When Kat emerges on the stage in her wedding dress, Charlie is holding Parker's "Marry Me" sign.  As Kat talks to the audience, she sees Charlie with the sign and decides to try something different.  She calls Charlie to the stage and they get married.

In the aftermath, everyone is questioning Kat's sanity.  Her decision is mocked by the media, who call out her previous failed marriages.  To save face, Kat and her team want the marriage to last for a few months.  Her manager, Colin (Bradley), offers to make a sizable donation to Charlie's school, if he agrees to attend some interviews and public appearances as Kat's husband.  He agrees, as long as his commitment to Lou and his students are not impacted.

Kat's life is tightly scheduled.  Every day she is surrounded by Colin, her publicist Melissa (Buteau), her videographer Kofi (Khalil Middleton), and others.  She shills products, live-streams her life, and regularly attends events.  Charlie is focused on his students and strengthening his bond with Lou.  He has a low-tech phone, isn't familiar with Kat's music, and uncomfortable with the publicity.  Can they connect despite their differences?

The film is based on the graphic novel series "Marry Me" by Bobby Crosby.

The Good:

This film feels like a rom com from the 90s-00s, when both Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson.  It is predictable, but relies on the charm of it's leads.  The side characters are funny, especially Stephen Wallem's teacher Mr. Pitts.  The film, bolstered by the catchy songs, is entertaining and enjoyable.

The Bad:

The song "Church".

Other Comments:

-The film features brand new songs performed by Jennifer Lopez and/or Maluma.  Maluma also has a writing credit on all of the songs he performs.

-"On My Way" is a stand-out.  It's not as flashy as the other songs, but it builds both the emotion and the volume with time.

-A solid rom-com that holds your attention and is an enjoyable ride.

Marry Me (2022) 112 minutes

Rating: PG-13 for some language and suggestive material

Director: Kat Coiro

Starring: Jennifer Lopez as Kat Valdez

Owen Wilson as Charlie Gilbert

Maluma as Bastian

John Bradley as Colin Calloway

Sarah Silverman as Parker Debbs

Chloe Coleman as Lou Gilbert

Michelle Buteau as Melissa

Stephen Wallem as Jonathan Pitts