This is my 16th year of predicting the Oscar winners. Last year I saw 3 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 4 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all). This year I saw 10* films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):
Attica
Dune
Free Guy
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Nightmare Alley
Robin Robin
Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
West Side Story
Attica is nominated for Best Documentary Feature.
Free Guy is nominated for Best Visual Effects.
Robin Robin (pictured above) is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) is nominated for Best Documentary Feature
*9 feature-length films and 1 short film.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
My Pick: Troy Kotsur
Kotsur seems to have the buzz in this category. If not Kotsur, it will be Smit-McPhee, who the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
My Pick: Ariana DeBose
DeBose has been sweeping the award shows. She steals the film and Rita Moreno previously won this award for her performance as the same character in the 1961 West Side Story film.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
My Pick: Will Smith
This is Smith's 3rd nomination, and it feels like his time. Cumberbatch could steal the win and never count out Washington, but it seems like Smith is poised for the win.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
My Pick: Olivia Colman or Penelope Cruz
This is a tight race - Chastain, Kidman, and Stewart are all portraying real people... but none of the films are successes. Ultimately, I think it will come down to past winners Colman or Cruz.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
My Pick: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Campion seems to be the front-runner, up until she angered the internet. She could still, potentially take the title... but I'm going to make a wild guess and call it for Ryusuke Hamaguchi.
Best Animated Film
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
My Pick: Encanto
Encanto is a beautiful film, with catchy songs (including a nomination for "Dos Oruguitas" as Best Original Song), and it was made by Disney. This seems like a no-brainer. However, if any film has a chance to top it, it would be The Mitchells vs. the Machines, which has a unique vision and the backing of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller.
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
My Pick: The Power of the Dog or CODA
The Power of the Dog is the big, obvious choice. This Netflix film has the most nominations (12) and lots of marketing. However, CODA seems to be on the upswing.
Dune will sweep the visual and sound categories, but it won't win here. Nightmare Alley is too weird. Belfast, Drive My Car, and King Richard aren't big enough hits. Licorice Pizza and Don't Look Up aren't big enough. I love West Side Story, but
I don't expect it to win. So it will come down to The Power of the Dog or CODA.
EDIT: 5 of 7, not bad.
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