Oscar Picks 2023

This is my 17th year of predicting the Oscar winners.  Last year I saw 10 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 5 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all).  This year I saw 9 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Flying Sailor

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Ice Merchants

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

RRR

The Sea Beast

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

The Flying Sailor is nominated for Best Animated Short Film

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay

Ice Merchants is nominated for Best Animated Short Film

On Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It is nominated for Best Animated Short Film

RRR is nominated for Best Original Song (for "Naatu Naatu")

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Pick: Ke Huy Quan or Brendan Gleeson

I loved Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once.  He does so much with the role, from impressive stunt work to romantic lead to heartbreaking.  Brendan Gleeson has also received significant buzz for his role in The Banshees of Inisherin.  I expect one of them to win.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Pick: Kerry Condon

Kerry Condon has the buzz.  The only potential upset is Angela Bassett. Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu were great in their roles and Hong Chau's performance is acclaimed, but I still think Condon will win.

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

My Pick: Brendan Fraser

Brendan Fraser is the sentimental choice, the comeback. If not Fraser, The win could go to Austin Butler for his transformation into Elvis Presley or Colin Farrell. I still give the edge to Fraser.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tar

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Pick: Michelle Yeoh

Michelle Yeoh is the obvious choice. She is incredible in Everything Everywhere All at Once, seamlessly transitioning between characters and skills. 

The rest of the nominees are talented actresses, but these roles are not enough to overtake Yeoh. Cate Blanchett is polarizing, Ana de Armas is a bright spot in a terrible film, Andrea Riseborough is a longshot, and Michelle Williams 

Best Director

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans

Todd Field, Tar

Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

My Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Martin McDonagh could win here, but I give the edge to the Daniels who told a compelling and complicated story and made it look easy.

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

My Pick: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Disney and Pixar are usually the ones to beat here. However, I do not expect turning Red to win. Marcel the Shell is cute, Puss in Boots is a sequel, and The Sea Beast was fun, but I give the edge to Guillermo del Toro's unique vision for Pinocchio.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

My Pick: Top Gun: Maverick

Top Gun: Maverick was a lot of fun to watch.  The action is impressive, while still crafting a story to keeps you engaged.  I also enjoyed Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I think it will walk away with some other categories (for it's screenplay, design, and cast.

EDIT: 5 of 7, not bad

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

 "Listen, I want to be clear.  I am not Batman.  I can find you the truth, I can gather evidence, I can present it to the police and the courts, but that is where my jurisdiction ends."

Tech billionaire Miles Bron (Norton) sends elaborate puzzles boxes to his closest friends.  Once solved, they reveal an invitation a murder mystery party and vacation at Miles' mansion, Glass Onion, on a private island in Greece.  The guests include Connecticut Governor Claire Debella (Hahn), Lionel Toussaint (Odom) the head scientist at Miles' company Alpha, fashion designer Birdie Jay (Hudson), her assistant Peg (Henwick), video game streamer Duke Cody (Bautista), his girlfriend Whiskey (Cline), Miles former business partner Cassandra "Andi" Brand (Monae), and famous detective Benoit Blanc (Craig).  The staff are given time off, so that the only people on the island are Miles and his guests.  His slacker friend Derol (Noah Segan) is also on the island, but not participating in the party.

As they enjoy the lavish surroundings, old resentments rise to the surface.  Will everyone survive the weekend?

The sequel to Rian Johnson's 2019 Knives Out.

The Good:

The film boasts an impressive cast and some unexpected cameos.  The majority of the story takes place on the island, which is beautiful.  Everything is lavish and elaborate and other the top, including some of the characters.

The story keeps you guessing and entertained.  The puzzles, especially the puzzle boxes the guests receive, are intriguing and you get caught up in the characters excitement.

The Bad:

The film meanders a bit in places.

Other Comments:

-The story is very different from it's predecessor - different setting, different scenario, different cast.  But still enjoyable.

-Cameos from Stephen Sondheim and Angela Lansbury, as themselves

-Netflix plans to make a third film in the series, again starring Craig and under the direction of Johnson.

-Nominated for a 2023 Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2022) 139 minutes

Director: Rian Johnson

Rating: PG-13 for strong language, some violence, sexual materials and drug content

Starring: Daniel Craig as Benoit Blanc

Edward Norton as Miles Bron

Janelle Monae as Cassandra "Andi" Brand

Kathryn Hahn as Claire Debella

Leslie Odom Jr. as Lionel Toussaint

Kate Hudson as Birdie Jay

Dave Bautista as Duke Cody

Jessica Henwick as Peg

Madelyn Cline as Whiskey