Oscar Picks 2009

This is year 3 for my blog and for guessing the Oscars. This year I have seen (at this point) 5 of the films being honored (Iron Man, The Dark Knight, Tropic Thunder, WALL-E, and Kung Fu Panda), so similar to 2007 and 2008 I will be guessing based on trailers, the reviews I read, and my personal opinions. Let the games begin. I will update the list either during or after the Oscars to see how well I do.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
*Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

...who will win... Heath Ledger
...who should win... Heath Ledger

I enjoyed Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder, but I would rather see the Oscar go to Heath Ledger. If not for this film alone, then to honor his body of work. I don't really think the others stand a chance.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
*Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taranji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

...who will win... probably Penelope Cruz, but I hope not
...who should win... I don't really know, so I'll just pick Amy Adams because she is adorable

Woody Allen films are overrated, and I have yet to be impressed with Penelope Cruz in any film. Based on everything I have been reading, I believe she will probably win, but I hope not. None of the others really stands out in my mind. Yes, their performances are praised, but I don't know much about them. Amy Adams is wonderful in general, so she gets my vote, but I wouldn't be upset if anyone other than Penelope Cruz walks away with the Oscar.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
*Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

...who will win... either Mickey Rourke or Sean Penn
...who should win... Mickey Rourke or Sean Penn

Everyone I know loved Milk and Sean Penn's performance, so I guess I'm leaning towards him. However, this is Mickey Rourke's triumphant return to the world of acting...in a role that is similar to his life. There is something very special about that, and considering he won the Golden Globe for best actor, he could walk away with the award. Without seeing either film I don't think I can make a good judgement call. Either will be a good choice.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
*Kate Winslet, The Reader

...who should win... probably Kate Winslet
...who will win... either Kate Winslet or Meryl Streep

I love Anne Hathaway and would love to see her win the Oscar, but Kate Winselt has been racking up the awards. I know she won the Golden Globe for both The Reader and Revolutionary Road, and am surprised that she didn't get nominated for both here, but I think this is her year. However, one can never count out Meryl Streep. As for the other two, I don't want Angelina Jolie to win and I have never heard of either Frozen River or Melissa Leo, so I don't think she has much of a chance.

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
*Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

...who will win... Danny Boyle
...who should win... not sure

If history repeats itself Slumdog will sweep the awards, and I hate when one film manages to do that. Yes, it's probably a great film, but still...it just gets obnoxious as a viewer. I doubt David Fincher and Ron Howard have a chance. With that said the films that seem the strongest currently are The Reader and Milk, so either of those directors could possibly pull an upset (unlikely).

Best Animated Film
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
*WALL-E
...who will win... WALL-E
...who should win... WALL-E

Kung Fu Panda was cute, but Pixar and WALL-E are better. Never count Pixar out. End of story.

Best Film

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
*Slumdog Millionaire

...who will win... Slumdog Millionaire or Milk...who should win... Slumdog Millionaire or Milk

It could go either way. Will people vote on current politics and go with Milk, or will they take the fairytale of Slumdog. I don't know. Brokeback Mountain was the favorite, but did not win...that was two years ago and times have changed, so Milk could have a chance.
Frost/Nixon isn't popular enough. The Reader has a chance, but won't. Benjamin Button won't win. I'm leaning towards Slumdog at this point. But if it does sweep the awards I can guarantee I won't be watching it for at least a year (thats how long it took to convince me to watch Million Dollar Baby because I was annoyed that it won every single award that year).

And just for fun:
Short Animated Film - Presto (the Pixar short at the beginning of WALL-E)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will probably win for effects.

Side note:
I'm annoyed that most movie theaters do not show Oscar nominated films. How am I supposed to make educated guesses when I can't find the films? I know it's possible, but that involves spending more money on a ticket and driving farther away...

EDIT: the (*) is the winner
7/7, not bad for not seeing most of these films...although I should probably subtract a point for Best Actor, I was announcing who would win each category and predicted Mickey Rourke while watching, but was mistaken.