Oscar Picks 2010

 This is my 4th consecutive year blogging and guessing the Oscars.  Unlike previous years, this year I made a conscious effort to see more of the nominated films.  This year I saw 5 of the 10 nominated films (The Blind Side, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up) and another film that has nominated stars (Julie & Julia).  So this will limit my random guessing (which is also tons of fun).

Last year I did pretty well.  7 out of 7... but I suppose they shouldn't all count because I had multiple guesses for at least 2 categories.  Let's see if I can do as well this year.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
*Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

...who will win... Christoph Waltz
...who should win... Christoph Waltz

It has to be Christoph Waltz... He plays a villain with such charm and charisma, that in the hands of a lesser actor would completely crash and brun.  I have not seen the performances of the other nominees and haven't heard muh about their characters.  I refuse to see Tucci as a villain.  Plummer and Damon haven't received much buzz.  The only one who could beat is Harrelson.  This seems to be a great year for him... how many films has he been in this year?  However, I still say Waltz for the win!

Best Support Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
*Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire

...who will win... Mo'Nique
...who should win... Mo'Nique

I'm fairly certain Mo'Nique will win.  She deserves it the most.  Everyone else, except for Kendrick, has had a nice career and some have been nomiated before.  Cruz's movie crashed and burned... Gyllenhaal - not so much... I don't have anything to say about Farmiga or Kendrick... so it's Mo'Nique playing against type who will sweep the awards.

Best Actor
*Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

...who will win... Jeff Bridges
...who should win... Colin Firth

A girl can dream.  Firth is a beautiful man, with a diverse career, and a first nomination.  I haven't seen the film yet, but I really want to.  However, all the buzz has been going to Jeff Bridges.  I'm not opposed to seeing him win.  Clooney winning would be fun too, but I don't really think that will happen.  And Renner was great, but he isn't big enough for the award (yet, but don't count him out in the future).  I forgot about Freeman, so I'm thinking he's a long shot as well.  So it will be Bridges (he sings on screen, so he has my permission to walk off with the statue).

Best Actress
*Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

...who will win... Meryl Streep or Sandra Bullock
...who should win... Sandra Bullock

It's about time!  Sandra Bullock.  Sandra Bullock.  SANDRA BULLOCK, please.  Mirren won a few years ago, and has anyone actually seen that film?  Mulligan and Sidibe are newbies, so it would be cool to see them take home a statue for their first starring roles, but I don't think it will happen.  Streep was great (honestly, when isn't she?), but Bullock was incredible in her film.  It could go either way, but I think it will be Bullock by a hair.

Best Director
*Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

...who will win... Kathryn Bigelow
...who should win... Kathryn Bigelow

The film was well-made... and how awesome would it be for a woman to FINALLY win the Oscar for Best Director??

Best Animated Film
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
*Up

...who will win... Up
...who should win... Up

I'm glad Disney made a new hand-drawn princess film (yay!!), but "Up" was an animated film for the whole family.  It was smart and funny, and I never count out Pixar (they always win, with good reason).  It would be cool to see Wes Anderson's "Fantastic Mr. Fox" wins, but I'm 95% sure that "Up" will leave with Oscar.

Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
*The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

...who will win... The Hurt Locker
...who should win... The Hurt Locker

"Inglourious Basterds" is Tarantino's best film yet, and on any other year, that would be enough to secure my vote... but this year there are stronger contenders.  I know everyone has gone crazy over "Avatar," and I'm not trying to take away from the film (I haven't seen it yet), but I don't think it will take "The Hurt Locker" out.  "The Hurt Locker" keeps you on the edge of your seat for 2+ hours.  It feels realistic and gritty... the characters have a dangerous job, and could die at any minute.  The film doesn't pull away.  You feel the tension each time they go out... and you are still slightly on edge when they are off duty and trying to find ways to cope with their jobs.  The tone is strong.  The story is strong.  The acting is strong.  The effects are realistic and strong.  I don't think any of the other films can boast that.  Perhaps "Avatar" is visually amazing, but what about the story?  Do people love it because of the computer effects, or is the story strong enough to stand as a live action film?  "The Hurt Locker" needs to win.

EDIT: This year I got 7 out of 7, yay!  (Winners are noted with a *)  Congratulations to all the winners... to the other nominees... to the hosts, Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, for being consistently funny... and to the producers / directors of this year's Academy Awards for delivering an interesting awards show.  Next year, please keep the introductions of the Best Actor / Actress and Director by friends and colleagues.