The past two years, I have done well: 7 out of 7! We'll see how well this goes...
Best Supporting Actor
*Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winters Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The Kings Speech
...who will win... Christian Bale
...who should win... Christian Bale
Christian Bale is an incredible actor... I haven't seen The Fighter yet, but I want to just because he is in it. He gives everything to every performance. Jeremy Renner was great in The Town (and in last year's nominated performance for The Hurt Locker), but he probably won't win. Mark Ruffalo and John Hawkes should appreciate being nominated, but shouldn't expect to walk home with a statue. The only person who could legitimately take the crown from Bale is Geoffrey Rush.... but I don't think it will happen.
Best Support Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The Kings Speech
*Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
...who will win... Amy Adams
...who should win... Amy Adams
There was significant Oscar buzz for Melissa Leo, but her campaigning hurt that. Jacki Weaver was great in Animal Kingdom, but it isn't a big enough film to win it. I don't like Helena Bonham Carter and Hailee Steinfeld is sooo young... and that leaves the always enjoyable Amy Adams.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
*Colin Firth, The Kings Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
...who will win... Colin Firth
...who should win... Colin Firth
JUST GIVE COLIN FIRTH THE AWARD AND STOP PUTTING IT OFF. I have loved Firth since his Pride and Prejudice days and would love to see him get some award loving. Javier Bardem and Jeff Bridges have Oscars already... James Franco just seems cocky, and he gets to host the awards... Jesse Eisenberg is good in The Social Network, but not good enough to change my mind. Not really seeing this going any other way.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winters Bone
*Natalie Portman, The Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
...who will win... Michelle Williams
...who should win... Natalie Portman
All the buzz has been about Natalie Portman and Annette Bening. At this point, Natalie is unstoppable. Annette is a good actress, but I hated her film. And where's the love for Julianne Moore? Jennifer Lawrence was great, but it isn't a showy role. I haven't heard much about Nicole Kidman's role... Michelle Williams is great, it isn't a happy film, but I would like to see her win. But the Oscar WILL go to Natalie Portman.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, The Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
*Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter
...who will win... David Fincher
...who should win... CHRISTOPHER NOLAN!!
The biggest films of the year are The King's Speech and The Social Network. The Social Network will probably win... it is very relevant now and stands a better chance to win. The script is great (very Aaron Sorkin), but it feels like a Fincher film. I'm not even going to talk about the others because they don't stand a chance. The only possible upset is Tom Hooper for The King's Speech. I'm still mad Christopher Nolan wasn't nominated, because he would have my vote!
Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
*Toy Story 3
...who will win... Toy Story 3
...who should win... eh, Toy Story 3
I always vote Pixar. They make consistently excellent films. How To Train Your Dragon was adorable and lots of fun... but for nostalgia alone Toy Story 3 will win. Don't know much about the Illusionist, so it could stand a chance, but I stand by the geniuses at Pixar.
Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
*The Kings Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
...who will win... The King's Speech
...who should win... The King's Speech or The Social Network
Inception was awesome. Toy Story 3 was beautiful and heartfeld (a tear-jerker). Winter's Bone was sparse and moving. The Kids Are All Right was weird and I refused to finish watching it. I have absolutely no desire to see 127 Hours, and even though I didn't love the original John Wayne True Grit, I am voting against it on prinicple alone. It will all come down to what people want: is it a moving period piece (The King's Speech) OR the timely story (The Social Network). I think the edge goes to The King's Speech. I can live with either winning.
EDIT: This year I got 5 of 7 categories correct... not bad, but still o.k.
James Franco and Anne Hathaway did a decent job hosting this year. Let me clarify, Anne Hathaway was good... James Franco was o.k. The choir at the end was adorable. Congrats to all the winners!!
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