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Saturday, February 23, 2013

Oscar Picks 2013

It's once again it's time to predict the winners of this year's Oscars (this is my 7th year!).  Last year I saw 11 of the nominated film, and correctly predicted 6 of 8 categories (I don't predict all of them).  This year I saw 15 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):


The Avengers is nominated for Visual Effects
Mirror Mirror is nominated for Costume Design
Snow White and the Huntsman is nominated for Costume Design and Visual Effects
Ted is nominated for Best Original Song... "Everybody Needs a Best Friend"

Alright, let's get to the main event:


Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
*Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

...who will win... Christoph Waltz or Tommy Lee Jones?
...who should win...?

This is a difficult race for me to pick... especially since I've only seen Silver Linings Playbook at this point.  All of the actors are incredible.  Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, and he won in 2010 in another Quentin Tarantino film... I give him the edge.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
*Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

...who will win... Anne Hathaway
...who should win... Anne Hathaway

Despite only appearing in a few scenes, Anne Hathaway's presence and performance dominate the film.  It is a heartbreaking performance.  Sally Field is a legend and it is a coveted role, but the clear winner is Hathaway.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
*Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

...who will win... Daniel Day Lewis
...who should win... Daniel Day Lewis

Daniel Day Lewis is good in everything, gets nominated often, and normally wins.  Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper were good in their respective films.  Denzel Washington is always good, but his movie wasn't as good... and he wasn't as good as Lewis.  Lewis will win. According to the telecast, this marks his 3rd win in the Best Actor category.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
*Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

...who will win... Jennifer Lawrence
...who should win... Jennifer Lawrence

Jennifer Lawrence is a strong and diverse actress.  She has appeared in 2 action franchises (The Hunger Games and X-Men), and within the last year she starred in a horror film and this film.  She was previously nominated in 2011.  The other actresses have not received significant buzz for their roles, so this seems like a sure thing.

Best Director
Michael Haneke, Amour
*Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

...who will win... Steven Spielberg
...who should win... Benh Zeitlin

Steven Spielberg will probably win for Lincoln, but I would love to see Benh Zeitlin win for Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Zeitlin was a surprise nomination, most assumed Ben Affleck would take the 5th slot.  Zeitlin is not as well-known as the other nominees, but he created a strong and unique film.  The only category I got wrong... Ang Lee is a strong and talented directed, and I am fine with getting this category wrong.  After seeing the film show up a few times during the telecast, I actually want to see The Life of Pi now.  It looks like an inventive film.

Best Animated Film
*Brave

...who will win... Brave
...who should win... Brave

Never bet against Pixar.  Brave was beautiful and moving, and a great mother / daughter film.  Wreck-It Ralph is a close second and a strong entry from Disney.  The remaining three films are inventive stop-motion films that all deserve the accolades they received, but won't make it past Brave.

Best Animated Short
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
*Paperman

...who will win... Paperman
...who should win... Paperman

Paperman is simple and beautiful ... a truly elegant and endearing short film, no one else stands a chance.  Fresh Guacamole is fun and creative.  I didn't have the opportunity to watch any of the other nominees, but I don't think they'll stand a chance.  Also, I enjoy The Simpsons, but how did it get nominated for an Oscar?

Best Picture

...who will win... Argo or Lincoln
...who should win... Argo

It's hard to believe that Ben Affleck didn't get a nod for Argo.  I haven't seen the film yet, but it is supposed to be excellent.  Argo has won most of the previous awards.  I think the only film that could top it is Lincoln, because The Academy likes historical dramas.

*EDIT:  This year I managed to accurately predict 7 / 8.  I watched the Oscars with my roommate and some friends (none survived till the end of the telecast... after all The Walking Dead was on as well), I had to explain a few jokes and explain the basic plot of a few films.  I was pleasantly surprised by the telecast... lets start the campaign to have Amy Poehler and Tina Fey host next year!
Comments, Seth McFarlane is better than I expected.  Thought it was funny that when the orchestra played people off that they started with the "Theme from Jaws."  Love the tribute to musicals (but I love musicals). 
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