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Sunday, February 28, 2016

Oscar Picks 2016

Once again it's time to predict the Oscar winners.  This is my 10th (how is that possible) set of predictions.  Last year I saw 13 of the nominated film, and correctly predicted 7 of 8 categories (I don't predict all of them).  This year I saw 14 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

The Revenant
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Spectre
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo
What Happened, Miss Simone?
 Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Cinderella is nominated for Best Costume Design
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared is nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyles
Spectre is nominated for Best Original Song
Straight Outta Compton is nominated for Best Original Screenplay
 

Alright, let's get to the main event:

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

...who will win... Sylvester Stallone
...who should win...*

At this time, I have only seen 2 of the films in this category... but Sylvester Stallone seems like the front runner for this award.  Stallone is returning to one of his most famous characters, a role he originated over 40 years ago.  He is also the only nominee that is not playing a real person.  Mark Rylance was phenomenal in Bridge of Spies and Tom Hardy was menacing in The Revenant, and Mark Ruffalo and Christian Bale are acclaimed for their roles, but it seems like Stallone has a nostalgia vote.  The only possible upset would be Mark Rylance.
*I thought Idiris Elba was a lock for this category for his role in Beasts of No Nation (which was brutal and I couldn't finish), and would have been my pick for this category.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

 ...who will win...Kate Winslet
...who should win...

This is a hard one.  I haven't seen any of these films... and it feels like they are level playing field.  Kate Winslet is a past winner and playing a real person, so I'm going to pick her for the win.  But it could really be anyone.  Alicia Vikander is an up-and-comer, Rooney Mara is a previous nominee, Rachel McAdams and Jennifer Jason Leigh are established names with diverse bodies of work.  I'm not confident in this category, and every article I've read has picked a different name.

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

...who will win... Leonardo DiCaprio
...who should win... Leonardo DiCaprio

I think this is Leonardo DiCaprio's year.  He is phenomenal in The Revenant.  It is a mostly physical performance, with minimal dialog, but he nails it.  Eddie Redmayne was my early guess for this category, but he hasn't won anything for The Danish Girl, so he probably won't pull an upset.  Bryan Cranston and Michael Fassbender are talented actors, but I don't think this is their year.  I enjoyed Matt Damon in The Martian (the only actor in this category that is not portraying a real person), but I give the edge to DiCaprio.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

...who will win... Brie Larson
...who should win... Brie Larson

I haven't seen any of the films nominated in this category*, but the buzz seems to go with Brie Larson in Room.  Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence are popular actresses and past winners, so either could pull an upset, but it doesn't seem likely.  And Saoirse Ronan and Charlotte Rampling just don't have the buzz behind their films / roles to really stand as strong contenders.
*I have plans to watch all of these films, but haven't had the opportunity to do so before the ceremony.

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

...who will win... George Miller or Lenny Abrahamson
...who should win... Alejandro G. Inarritu or Lenny Abrahamson

George Miller's directorial career began in 1979 with Mad Max (which he also co-wrote).  Now over 30 years later, he has returned to the franchise with Mad Max: Fury Road, he might be a front runner for the award because of that history.  But Alejandro G. Inarritu and Lenny Abrahamson did incredible things with their films.  Inarritu made a mostly silent film, in brutal conditions.  Abrahamson limits the majority of his film to a confined space and makes the audience claustrophobia.  I'm sure Tom McCarthy and Adam McKay also made great films, but I think it will come down to Miller, Inarritu or Abrahamson.

Best Animated Film
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
When Marnie Was There

...who will win... Inside Out
...who should win... Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep was cute and innovative, but there is no doubt in my mind that Inside Out will win.  Inside Out was the perfect mixture of creativity, fun animation, and emotions.  It is enough to keep kids entertained, but also draw in adults (and make you bawl like a baby).

Best Documentary 
...who should win...

This is the only category that I saw all of the nominated films (which is odd since I don't tend to enjoy Documentaries).  Each film was gripping in it's own way.  All were emotional and, at times, difficult to watch for various reasons.  Cartel Land and Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom are brutal films that don't shy away from showing the harsh realities of their situations (they are gory and disturbing, without glorifying the violence).  The Look of Silence (the follow up to The Act of Killing) is heartbreaking.  What Happened, Miss Simone? and Amy focus on the lives of songwriters Nina Simone and Amy Winehouse respectively.  What Happened, Miss Simone? is compelling, Simone has a charismatic presence and an interesting life... but I believe the Oscar will go to Amy as Amy Winehouse left an undeniable mark on the music industry in a short amount of time, and her name is still big right now.  But I would be happy to see any of these films win.

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road

...who will win... The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road
...who should win...The Revenant

I liked The Martian and Bridge of Spies, but I think it will come down to the The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road for the same reasons I listed in the director category.  Both are big movies (epic scale and taking place in open spaces in nature) with dedicated directors.  I liked The Revenant so I'll call in favor of it.

I would like "Sanjay's Super Team" (pictured above) to win Best Animated Short (I mean look at Sanjay, he's a cutie).  I look forward to seeing Chris Rock as the host.


EDIT: 5 out of 8, not great... I wanted Mark Rylance to win Best Supporting Actor, and I thought he would be the only upset to Sylvester Stallone's victory... so if you count that, it ups my list to 6 out of 8.  Regardless, for seeing more nominated films than usual, I did worse than usual.
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