Oscar Picks 2017

Once again it's time to predict the Oscar winners.  This is my 11th set of predictions.  Last year I saw 14 of the nominated film, and correctly predicted 5 of 8 categories (I don't predict all of them).  This year I saw 10 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

13th
Arrival
Captain Fantastic
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
Hell or High Water
Kubo and the Two Strings
La La Land
Life Animated
Zooptopia

Hail, Caesar! is nominated for Best Production Design

Alright, let's get to the main event:

Best Supporting Actor

*Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedge, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

...who will win... Mahershala Ali

...who should win... Mahershala Ali

Mahershala Ali has the buzz going into this award.  I have heard the most about his performance, so I don't think anyone else stands a chance.

Best Supporting Actress

*Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

 ...who will win... Viola Davis

...who should win... Viola Davis or Octavia Spencer

Viola Davis has been sweeping the award shows.  I think she has the edge to win.  The only possible upset is Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures.  But I still think it will be Davis.

Best Actor

*Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

...who will win... Denzel Washington

...who should win... Denzel Washington or Casey Affleck

I would love to see Ryan Gosling win for La La Land or Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic, but it will probably be Denzel Washington for Fences.  Casey Affleck could pull an upset... since he was one of the early favorites.

Best Actress

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

*Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

...who will win... Natalie Portman

...who should win... Emma Stone

I loved Emma Stone in La La Land, I like to think that she could win.... but it is a tough category.  Meryl Streep was great in Florence Foster Jenkins, but I think it will be Natalie Portman.

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

*Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

...who will win... Damien Chazelle or Barry Jenkins

...who should win... Damien Chazelle or Denis Villeneuve

La La Land was stunning, so I think Damien Chazelle has a good chance of winning this category.  But, Arrival was also great and people really enjoyed the direction of Moonlight, so I think either of them could take it from Chazelle.

Best Animated Film

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

*Zootopia

...who will win... Zootopia

...who should win... Zootopia

Zootopia was one of the first movies I saw in theaters in 2016.  It is a great animated film, and it will take the title.  My Life as a Zucchini looks like a fun film and Kubo and the Two Strings was very well-made.  And I am excited to see Moana, but I don't think anyone can take Zootopia.

Best Documentary 

13th

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

*O.J.: Made in America

...who will win... 13th or O.J.: Made in America

...who should win... 13th or O.J.: Made in America

The O.J. Simpson trial is very popular right now.  The TV series American Crime: The People v. O.J. Simpson swept the Emmy's, due to great performances and an interesting story... and that can only help the O.J. Made in America documentary, which is a five-part miniseries.  I think the only upset will be 13th which was another fascinating documentary.  Based on current events, it will be one of those two.

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

*Moonlight

...who will win... La La Land

...who should win... La La Land

No question, La La Land should win this.  It is an inventive and entertaining movie and musical.  It doesn't do everything you expect and everything about it works.  Arrival was also a film that kept you guessing... but I think for the spectacle alone, it will be La La Land.

Other than that, I would like to see Lin-Manuel Miranda EGOT, so I would like his "How Far I'll Go" to win Best Original Song.  However, I think it will go to Justin Hurwitz and Pasek & Paul for "City of Stars".

And the short film Piper (pictured above) was cute, so that's my pic for Best Animated Short.


*EDIT: 7 out of 8
Not bad.