I have been predicting the Oscars since 2007. Last year I saw 9 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 5 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all). This year I saw 6 films:
American Symphony
Nai Nai and Wai Po
Oppenheimer
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
American Symphony is nominated for Best Original Song
Nai Nai and Wai Po is nominated for Best Live Action Short Film
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is nominated for Best Live Action Short Film
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
My pick: Robert Downey Jr.
I loved Ryan Gosling in Barbie, but Robert Downey Jr has the buzz. I would love to see Sterling K. Brown take the win, but I expect iy will be Downey.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
My pick: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
It is a strong list of actresses and powerful performances, but Da'Vine Joy Randolph is the favorite. I am excited to see her win and to check out her performance in The Holdovers.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
My pick: Cillian Murphy
It's got to be Cillian Murphy. He is great in Oppenheimer without going too far. The other nominees are good (and I could see Paul Giamatti or Jeffrey Wright take the win here), but Murphy will win.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
My pick: Lily Gladstone
Lily Gladstone has been the favorite in this category and seems like the sure-thing.
Best Director
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
My pick: Christopher Nolan
Oppenheimer is an incredible film and I fully expect Christopher Nolan to win.
Best Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
My pick: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
I expected The Super Mario Bros. Movie to be nominated here and I'm disappointed that it isn't. I believe Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will win, but, it is up against a Miyazaki film, The Boy and the Heron. If Spider-Man doesn't win, it will be because of Heron.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
My pick: Oppenheimer
I hate to see a single film sweep the awards, but I'll make an exception this year. Barbenheimer was a thing for a long time and it seemed like this award (and award season in general) would be a dual between Barbie and Oppenheimer, but Oppenheimer has the most nominations, a strong script, effects, direction, cast etc and I think it will be rewarded here (although I do expect Barbie to win Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Song).
Extras:
1. I thoroughly enjoyed The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. It has the meticulous detail that director Wes Anderson is known for and feels like the perfect showcase for Roald Dahl's Story. I expect it will win Best Live Action Short Film.
2. I expect "What Was I Made For?" (from Barbie) by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell to win Best Original Song.
EDIT: 7/9
Not too bad
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