I have been predicting the Oscars since 2007. Last year I saw 6 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 7 of 9 categories (I don't predict them all). This year I saw 2 of the films.
These are my last minute pics... I did not see as many films as I planned, and due to sickness didn't have a chance to put more thought into my selections.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
My pick: Kieran Culkin or Jeremy Strong
Winner: Kieran Culkin
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande-Butera, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
My pick: Zoe Saldana
I enjoyed Ariana Grande-Butera in Wicked, but Zoe Saldana has the buzz.
Winner: Zoe Saldana
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
My pick: Timothee Chalamet
Playing a well-known performer is s a risk, but it is also the kind of risk that Oscars likes to award. Sebastian Stan is also playing a well-known figure, but at this time, I don't think it will be rewarded.
Winner: Adrien Brody
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here
My pick: Demi Moore
Cynthia Erivo gave a great performance, but it seems like it is Demi Moore's to lose, especially with the controversy surrounding Karla Sofia Gascon.
Winner: Mikey Madison
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
My pick: Brady Corbet
I have absolutely no interest in the film, but this seems like the category where it is most like to win.
Winner: Sean Baker
Best Animated Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
The Wild Robot
My pick: Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Fun story, fun animation, and well-made. But never count out Disney/Pixar, Inside Out 2 had good buzz and it's predecessor won in this category, so it has a good chance.
Winner: Flow
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
My pick: Wicked
I don't know if it will win, but it was the film that I was most excited to see and felt the film lived up to the hype. I do plan to see Dune: Part Two and possibly another, but there doesn't seem to be an obvious front-runner.
Winner: Anora
Updated: 2/7, not great
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