Oscar Picks 2008

Once again I have not seen all the films...or know all the actors, but I might as well put in my vote (especially if they don't even have the show...sigh...)
I even got a few right last year (not that I remember which ones...)

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
*Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

...who will win... Ruby Dee or Cate Blanchett
Dee won the SAG award...but Blanchett is the favorite
...who SHOULD win... Cate Blanchett
 I haven't seen any of these films...but based on what I've seen...Ronan is too young, Ryan is too vile (her character has quite the mouth), Swinton might be a contender but Michael Clayton was in theaters too long ago. Dee is adorable and all that...but I think Blanchett will win it. People love Bob Dylan, and she was Bob Dylan, so why not? But Dee is the oldest contender and that could sway some votes. I'd like to see Blanchett win...even though she already has an Oscar. Dee didn't impress me with her speech at the SAGs but it might be cute if she wins (especially if she looks as surprised as she did...and she gets a standing ovation)

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
*Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

...who will win... Javier Bardem
...who should win... Javier Bardem
Again, I haven' see any of these films but Bardem is the only one that people really have talked about. Yeah it would be cool if Affleck won, but it won't happen. Hoffman already has a Oscar for Best Actor (Capote), Holbrook's film hasn't been hyped enough, and I haven't heard much about Wilkinson. Bardem won the SAG and probably the Golden Globe (I don't know who won any of the Globes)...and he his performance seems solid...plus he gave a nice speech at the SAGs.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
*Marion Cotillard, La Mome
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

...who will win... Julie Christie
...who SHOULD win... probably Julie Christie...but I want Ellen Page to win
Guess what? I didn't see any of these. Critics (and viewers) hated Elizabeth so Blanchett has no chance. Cotillard's film didn't have a strong following. Other than reading "Entertainment Weekly" I hadn't heard anything about the "Savages" so I'm assuming it didn't hit many theaters, and destroy Linney's chances (plus, I don't want her to win...well at least not now). That leaves us with Christie (who won the SAG) and Page. Christie will probably win. Her name leads the pack, and popular opinion, however "Juno" is "the little movie that could" so Page could be the underdog...and I like to root for the underdog. Either way I won't be too upset.

Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
*Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

...who will win... Daniel Day Lewis
...who SHOULD win... probably Daniel Day Lewis
Elah was a dud (at least in the box office) so I don't think Jones is in the running. Mortensen probably isn't either. If Depp wins I plan to laugh...loudly and for a very, very, very long time. It isn't that I think he should win or he doesn't deserve it...I just think it would be ironic if a dark/disturbing musical beat out it's serious contenders and I plan to celebrate that (and buy the movie because it will be an Oscar winner). Clooney may put up a good fight (and who wouldn't want to look at him while he gives an acceptance speech), but Lewis won the SAG and this is supposed to be his greatest performance...plus he talked about Heath Ledger in his SAG speech, so he's going to win. And I will secretly love him for doing so (and then I may see the film).

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
*Ethan & Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, Le Scanhandre et le papillon

...who will win... the Coen's?
...who SHOULD win... Jason Reitman
Honestly, this is a tough one! Schnabel probably made a beautiful film, but I don't really see him winning. Gilroy might have a chance, but it's doubtful. It will either be Anderson, the Coens, or Reitman. Since I think "Blood" and "No Country" will sweep the other awards, lets spread the love and let Reitman (or Gilroy) win. I think "Juno" has a better shot at Best Original Screenplay...but I still want it to win. And if it doesn't win anything I'll be as annoyed as the year "Million Dollar Baby" won every single award and I refused to watch that film for over a year! (also the reason I didn't want Clint Eastwood to win anything last year).


Best Animated Film
Persepolis
*Ratatouille
Surf's Up

...who will win... Persepolis
These are the films I have actually seen (ok, so I've only seen Ratatouille). Persepolis will win...and if it doesn't win then I will be disappointed. But if Surf's Up wins I will stop watching the show (like when Happy Feet won...stupid penguins). I liked Ratatouille, but Persepolis looks mildly more interesting.

Best Film
Atonement
Juno
Michel Clayton
*No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

...who should win...No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood
It's hard to tell. Atonement won't win. Juno probably won't as well since it's a comedy. Clayton could...but it is not likely. I believe it will be No Country for Old Men...but what do I know.

I think I should spend the rest of the time between now and the Oscars watching all these films so I can have more of an opinion, because honestly as long as Juno wins something and one film doesn't sweep the awards, I don't really care what happens. Oh yes, I want the glitzy show not some boring report. Come on Hollywood, get it together!

4/7 (* signifies a win)...and I did think Diablo Cody would win Best Adapted Screenplay, so I'll count that as well
I have seen 31 of the 70 films which have won the Oscar for Best Film