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Saturday, March 14, 2026

Oscar Picks 2026

I have been predicting the Oscars since 2007. Last year I saw 2 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 2 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all). This year I saw 5 of the films.

Zootopia 2

Jurassic World: Rebirth is nominated for Best Visual Effects
K-Pop Demon Hunters is nominated for Best Animated Film and Best Song (for "Golden")
Sinners received a record 16 nominations

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

My pick: Delroy Lindo
Lindo was great in Sinners and I would be happy to see him win.  However, it could go to Sean Penn, based on name recognition alone.


Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

My pick: Teyana Taylor
Taylor was the early favorite in this category, but Amy Madigan has also gained steam for her role.  And Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA.  I still think Taylor will win.


Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

My pick: Michael B. Jordan
Jordan was great in Sinners, playing twins and giving each character a distinct personality and look.  The only possible upset is Timothee Chalamet, but I give the edge to Jordan.


Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia

My pick: Jessie Buckley
Buckley is the front runner and I fully expect her to win here.


Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

My pick: Paul Thomas Anderson
Most of the Oscar predictions that I read expect the the Academy to give the win to Anderson, not necessarily because this is the best film of his career, but because he is "due" a win.  


Best Animated Film
Arco
Elio
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

My pick: K-Pop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2 was good, but K-Pop Demon Hunters will win.  It's a well-made movie, a massive hit (with a sequel already ordered), and I can't see anyone else winning in this category.  I also expect the song "Golden" to win Best Song.


Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Train Dreams

My pick: Sinners
This film surprised me - I went in mostly blind and walked away a fan.  It is well acted (hence the 3 acting nominations), well-made, and the music is great.  Frankenstein will probably walk away with other awards based on it's distinctive style.  One Battle After Another is a big film with a flashy cast, but I think it will win in other categories (like Director).  I hate picking one film to clean-up all the awards, but if any can do it this year, it is Sinners.

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