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    Oscar Picks 2022



    This is my 16th year of predicting the Oscar winners.  Last year I saw 3 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 4 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all).  This year I saw 
    10* films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

    Attica
    Dune
    Free Guy
    The Mitchells vs. the Machines
    Nightmare Alley
    Robin Robin
    Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
    West Side Story

    Attica is nominated for Best Documentary Feature.
    Free Guy is nominated for Best Visual Effects.
    Robin Robin (pictured above) is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
    Summer of Soul (...Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) is nominated for Best Documentary Feature

    *9 feature-length films and 1 short film.

    Best Supporting Actor
    Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
    Troy Kotsur, CODA
    Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
    J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    My Pick: Troy Kotsur
    Kotsur seems to have the buzz in this category.  If not Kotsur, it will be Smit-McPhee, who the frontrunner.


    Best Supporting Actress
    Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    Judi Dench, Belfast
    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

    My Pick: Ariana DeBose
    DeBose has been sweeping the award shows.  She steals the film and Rita Moreno previously won this award for her performance as the same character in the 1961 West Side Story film.


    Best Actor
    Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... Boom!
    Will Smith, King Richard
    Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    My Pick: Will Smith
    This is Smith's 3rd nomination, and it feels like his time.  Cumberbatch could steal the win and never count out Washington, but it seems like Smith is poised for the win.


    Best Actress
    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
    Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
    Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    My Pick: Olivia Colman or Penelope Cruz
    This is a tight race - Chastain, Kidman, and Stewart are all portraying real people... but none of the films are successes.  Ultimately, I think it will come down to past winners Colman or Cruz.


    Best Director
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

    My Pick: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
    Campion seems to be the front-runner, up until she angered the internet.  She could still, potentially take the title... but I'm going to make a wild guess and call it for Ryusuke Hamaguchi.


    Best Animated Film
    Flee
    Luca
    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    My Pick: Encanto
    Encanto is a beautiful film, with catchy songs (including a nomination for "Dos Oruguitas" as Best Original Song), and it was made by Disney.  This seems like a no-brainer.  However, if any film has a chance to top it, it would be The Mitchells vs. the Machines, which has a unique vision and the backing of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller.


    Best Picture
    Belfast
    CODA
    Don't Look Up
    Drive My Car
    Dune
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    Nightmare Alley
    The Power of the Dog
    West Side Story

    My Pick: The Power of the Dog or CODA
    The Power of the Dog is the big, obvious choice.  This Netflix film has the most nominations (12) and lots of marketing.  However, CODA seems to be on the upswing.
    Dune will sweep the visual and sound categories, but it won't win here.  Nightmare Alley is too weird.  Belfast, Drive My Car, and King Richard aren't big enough hits.  Licorice Pizza and Don't Look Up aren't big enough.  I love West Side Story, but 
    I don't expect it to win. So it will come down to The Power of the Dog or CODA.


    EDIT: 5 of 7, not bad.

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