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    Oscar Picks 2023



    This is my 17th year of predicting the Oscar winners.  Last year I saw 10 of the nominated films and correctly predicted 5 of 7 categories (I don't predict them all).  This year I saw 9 films (for the full list of nominees, go to the Academy Awards website):

    The Flying Sailor
    Ice Merchants
    An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
    RRR
    The Sea Beast
    Triangle of Sadness

    The Flying Sailor is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay
    Ice Merchants is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
    On Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It is nominated for Best Animated Short Film
    RRR is nominated for Best Original Song (for "Naatu Naatu")

    Best Supporting Actor
    Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
    Judd Hirsch, The Fablemans
    Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    My Pick: Ke Huy Quan or Brendan Gleeson
    I loved Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once.  He does so much with the role, from impressive stunt work to romantic lead to heartbreaking.  Brendan Gleeson has also received significant buzz for his role in The Banshees of Inisherin.  I expect one of them to win.


    Best Supporting Actress
    Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
    Hong Chau, The Whale
    Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
    Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    My Pick: Kerry Condon
    Kerry Condon has the buzz.  The only potential upset is Angela Bassett. Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu were great in their roles and Hong Chau's performance is acclaimed, but I still think Condon will win.


    Best Actor
    Austin Butler, Elvis
    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Brendan Fraser, The Whale
    Paul Mescal, Aftersun
    Bill Nighy, Living

    My Pick: Brendan Fraser
    Brendan Fraser is the sentimental choice, the comeback. If not Fraser, The win could go to Austin Butler for his transformation into Elvis Presley or Colin Farrell. I still give the edge to Fraser.


    Best Actress
    Cate Blanchett, Tar
    Ana de Armas, Blonde
    Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
    Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
    Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    My Pick: Michelle Yeoh
    Michelle Yeoh is the obvious choice. She is incredible in Everything Everywhere All at Once, seamlessly transitioning between characters and skills. 
    The rest of the nominees are talented actresses, but these roles are not enough to overtake Yeoh. Cate Blanchett is polarizing, Ana de Armas is a bright spot in a terrible film, Andrea Riseborough is a longshot, and Michelle Williams 


    Best Director
    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
    Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
    Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
    Todd Field, Tar
    Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

    My Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
    Martin McDonagh could win here, but I give the edge to the Daniels who told a compelling and complicated story and made it look easy.


    Best Animated Film
    Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
    The Sea Beast
    Turning Red

    My Pick: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
    Disney and Pixar are usually the ones to beat here. However, I do not expect turning Red to win. Marcel the Shell is cute, Puss in Boots is a sequel, and The Sea Beast was fun, but I give the edge to Guillermo del Toro's unique vision for Pinocchio.


    Best Picture
    All Quiet on the Western Front
    Avatar: The Way of Water
    The Banshees of Inisherin
    Elvis
    Everything Everywhere All at Once
    The Fabelmans
    Tar
    Top Gun: Maverick
    Triangle of Sadness
    Women Talking

    My Pick: Top Gun: Maverick
    Top Gun: Maverick was a lot of fun to watch.  The action is impressive, while still crafting a story to keeps you engaged.  I also enjoyed Everything Everywhere All at Once, but I think it will walk away with some other categories (for it's screenplay, design, and cast.

    EDIT: 5 of 7, not bad

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